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Temporal-Spatial Distribution of Birth Dates for Michigan Children with Leukemia

Epidemiology and Biometry Branches, National Cancer Institute, NIH, Bethesda, Maryland 20014

If newborn humans are as susceptible to leukemogens as newborn laboratory animals, and if potential human leukemogens are periodically active, it should be possible to demonstrate periodicities in the birth dates of leukemic children. To test the hypothesis that the birth dates of leukemic children are randomly distributed in space and time, we studied 375 leukemic children who were born during 1950–1959 in Michigan and who died of leukemia in Michigan in the first five years of life. Statewide leukemia death rates according to year of birth varied randomly during the 10 years. Likewise, rates according to month of birth for the 10 years combined revealed no unusual seasonal or monthly variation. The Ederer-Myers-Mantel procedure, a methodology developed for the detection of temporal-spatial clustering of events, failed to demonstrate clustering of birth dates by year, season, or month of birth when the individual counties, rather than the entire state, were taken as the unit of space. To minimize the effects of postnatal events, all of the tests were repeated with data from the 77 leukemia deaths in the first year of life during 1950–1963, but the results were unchanged. We concluded that the cause of leukemia in children under age 5 either is not especially active around the time of birth or does not vary systematically by season or through calendar time.

Received 3/ 2/67. Accepted 5/22/67.