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Multivariate Analysis of Prognostic Factors in Patients with Disseminated Nonseminomatous Testicular Cancer: Results from a European Organization for Research on Treatment of Cancer Multiinstitutional Phase III Study¹

Free University Hospital, Amsterdam, The Netherlands [G. S.]; EORTC Data Center, Brussels, Belgium [R. S., M. d. P.]; University Hospital, Groningen [D. T. S.]; Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam, The Netherlands [W. W. t. B. H.]; Gartnavel Hospital, Glasgow [S. B. K.]; Cookridge Hospital, Leeds, United Kingdom [W. G. J.]; University Hospital, Leiden [A. T. O.]; University Hospital, Utrecht [C. P. J. V.]; Red Cross Hospital, The Hague, The Netherlands [P. S.]; and other participating institutions: University Hospital, Nijmegen, University Hospital, Rotterdam, Westeinde Hospital, The Hague, The Netherlands; and Middelheim Hospital, Antwerp, Belgium

Univariate and multivariate linear logistic regression analyses of potential prognostic variables have been performed for 163 patients with disseminated nonseminomatous testicular cancer, treated with cisplatin, vinblastine, and bleomycin in a multicenter study of the European Organization for Research on Treatment of Cancer Genito-Urinary Tract Cancer Cooperative Group. With a multivariate analysis, four prognostic groups with complete responder rates of 100, 89, 41, and 18%, respectively, were identified based on three prognostic factors: trophoblastic elements in the primary tumor, serum concentration of -fetoprotein, and lung metastases by size and number. However, with a univariate analysis the logarithm of the ß subunit of human chorionic gonadotrophin (BHCG) was the single most important factor. This model aids the physician in selecting prospectively good risk patients who are candidates for low toxicity chemotherapy and poor risk patients with whom innovative treatment should be attempted.

¹ This investigation was supported by grant 5R10 CA11488-11, awarded by the National Cancer Institute, Department of Health and Human Services, Bethesda, MD and by a grant from Bristol Myers Company, New York, NY.

² To whom requests for reprints should be addressed, at Rotterdam Cancer Institute, Groene Hilledijk 301, 3075 EA Rotterdam, The Netherlands.

Received 10/ 2/86. Revised 1/30/87. Accepted 2/18/87.

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