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Modeling the Development of Metastases from Primary and Locally Recurrent Tumors: Comparison with a Clinical Data Base for Prostatic Cancer¹

Division of Radiation Oncology and Biophysics, George Washington University Medical Center, Washington, DC 20037 [E. D. Y.], and Departments of Radiation Oncology [Z. F.], Medicine [L. N.], Surgery [W. W.], and Medical Physics [C. C. L.], Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, New York, New York 10021

For many types of cancer, patients who relapse locally following localized treatment such as surgery or radiation therapy are found to have a higher incidence of distant metastases than those who are locally controlled. In this study we developed a mathematical model to investigate whether the excess distant metastases arise mainly from the local recurrence or whether the primary tumors in this group of patients have an intrinsically higher metastatic potential than those of locally controlled patients of the same clinical stage. The parameters of the model were chosen to be representative of prostate cancer and the calculated results were compared with published clinical data for carcinoma of the prostate. The best agreement with the data was seen for parameters which imply somewhat more "aggressive" primary tumors for locally relapsing patients, yielding relatively high rates of micrometastatic dissemination prior to initial diagnosis. However, the model calculations indicate that more than half of the metastases in such patients originated in association with the development of a local recurrence. Therefore, achieving local control in this group of patients would be beneficial in improving long term survival.

¹ Supported in part by Grant CA59017 from the National Cancer Institute, NIH, DHHS.

² To whom requests for reprints should be addressed.

Received 1/12/93. Accepted 4/23/93.

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