
[Cancer Research 60, 6376-6380, November 15, 2000]
© 2000 American Association for Cancer Research
Risk for Gastric Cancer after Antibiotic Prophylaxis in Patients Undergoing Hip Replacement1
Katja Akre2,
Lisa B. Signorello,
Lars Engstrand,
Reinhold Bergström,
Sune Larsson,
Bengt I. Eriksson and
Olof Nyrén
Department of Medical Epidemiology, Karolinska Institute, S-171 77 Stockholm, Sweden [K. A., L. B. S., L. E., R. B., O. N.]; International Epidemiology Institute, Rockville, Maryland 20850 [L. B. S.]; Swedish Institute for Infectious Disease Control, S-171 77 Stockholm, Sweden [L. E.]; Department of Statistics, Uppsala University, S-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden [R. B.]; Department of Orthopedics, Uppsala University Hospital, S-751 85 Uppsala, Sweden [S. L.]; and Department of Orthopedics, Sahlgrenska-Östra University Hospital, S-416 85 Gothenburg, Sweden [B. E.]
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ABSTRACT
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Despite strong evidence of an association between Helicobacter
pylori and gastric cancer, the benefit of eradicating H.
pylori infection is unknown. Our aim was to test the hypothesis
that exposure to high doses of antibiotics reduces risk for gastric
cancer via possible eradication of H. pylori. We
conducted a nationwide case-control study nested in a cohort of 39,154
patients who underwent hip replacement surgery between 1965 and 1983.
Such patients frequently receive prophylactic antibiotic treatment.
During follow-up through 1989, we identified 189 incident cases of
gastric cancer. For each case, three controls were selected from the
cohort. Exposure data were abstracted from hospital records. Blood
samples from a separate cohort undergoing hip replacement surgery were
analyzed for anti-H. pylori IgG before and after
surgery. Both long-term antibiotic treatment before surgery [odds
ratio (OR), 0.3; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.10.7] and
prophylactic antibiotic treatment (OR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.51.1)
conferred a reduction in gastric cancer risk. The reduction appeared
stronger after 5 years (OR, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.31.2) than during shorter
follow-up after hip replacement (OR, 0.8; 95% CI, 0.41.7). There was
an apparent decrease in risk with increasing body weight-adjusted doses
of antibiotics (P = 0.13). However, the
rate of H. pylori antibody disappearance was not
strikingly higher in the cohort of patients undergoing hip replacement
than in a control cohort. Our findings provide indirect support for the
hypothesis that treatment with antibiotics at a relatively advanced age
reduces the risk of gastric cancer.
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INTRODUCTION
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Strong epidemiological evidence of an association with gastric
cancer has resulted in the classification of Helicobacter
pylori as a human carcinogen (1)
, but a causal link
has not been clearly established. Recently, three experimental studies
provided evidence that H. pylori infection induces gastric
cancer in animals (2, 3, 4)
. However, a demonstrable decrease
in gastric cancer incidence in humans after eradication of H.
pylori would provide the missing evidence of causality and should
be required before large-scale prevention programs are implemented.
However, clinical eradication trials with cancer incidence as an end
point are difficult to perform; they require large samples and lengthy
follow-up, even in populations with high gastric cancer incidence.
We saw an opportunity to obtain indirect evidence in support of a
causal relationship between H. pylori and gastric cancer by
evaluating, in an observational study, gastric cancer risk among
patients exposed to heavy antibiotic treatment. In a cohort study based
on record linkage between the Swedish Inpatient Register and Cancer
Register (5)
, we previously observed a steady decrease in
gastric cancer risk with time after hip replacement surgery among both
males and females. The risk was 10%, 26%, and 42% lower than that of
the background population after 1, 5, and 10 years, respectively. These
results were recently confirmed in a similar study from Denmark
(6)
. A possible explanation for the observed reduction in
gastric cancer risk is incidental eradication of H. pylori
by the prophylactic antibiotic treatment given to a majority of the
patients. Indeed, incidental eradication of H. pylori has
previously been observed among heart and liver transplant recipients in
association with antibiotic treatment (7
, 8)
.
To test the hypothesis that antibiotic treatment reduces risk for
gastric cancer, perhaps with a dose-dependent effect, we abstracted
detailed information on antibiotic treatment in a case-control study
nested within the original cohort of hip replacement patients
(5)
. To test our proposed chain of evidence linking
H. pylori causally to gastric cancer, we also used serum
samples from another, more recent cohort of patients undergoing hip
replacement surgery with prophylactic antibiotic treatment to determine
the incidence of anti-H. pylori IgG seroreversion.
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MATERIALS AND METHODS
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For the present study, we have used three independent cohorts
(cohorts I, II, and III) that will be described below.
Prophylactic Antibiotics and Gastric Cancer Risk (Cohort I).
The Swedish Inpatient Register, established in 1965, keeps records of
all instances of somatic in-hospital care in the areas covered by the
registration (9)
. Cohort I, which has been described
previously (5)
, consisted of all patients recorded in this
register as having undergone hip replacement surgery (Swedish
Classification of Operations and Major Procedures, codes 8410, 8411,
8412, and 8419) between 1965 and 1983. The first such surgery for each
cohort member during this time period was designated as the "index"
surgery. There were 39,154 patients (14,869 men and 24,285 women). The
mean age at entry into the cohort was 67.7 years, and the mean calendar
year at entry was 1978. Primary diagnoses at the time of hip
replacement surgery were osteoarthritis (64%), late sequelae after
fracture (17%), acute fracture (10%), rheumatoid arthritis (5%), and
other (5%).
Use of the individually unique national registration number permitted
linkage of information across registries. Through linkage to the more
than 97% complete National Swedish Cancer Registry (10)
,
established in 1958, we identified all incident cases of gastric cancer
(International Classification of Diseases-7, code 151) in the
cohort from the start of follow-up (time of index surgery) until
censoring due to a cancer diagnosis, death, emigration, or end of
follow-up (December 31, 1989), whichever occurred first. Dates of death
and emigration were obtained through record linkages to the essentially
complete national registers of death and emigration. Mean duration of
follow-up for the cohort was 8.4 years, and it generated a total of
327,922 person-years at risk.
Nested Case-Control Study within Cohort I.
A total of 189 cases of gastric cancer occurred during follow-up. For
each case, three controls who were alive and living in Sweden at the
time of cancer diagnosis of the index case were randomly selected from
the cohort, matched on age (±5 years) and date of index surgery (±5
years). Only exposures prior to 1 year before cancer diagnosis
in the case and the corresponding follow-up time for the control were
considered. We were able to retrieve orthopedic medical records for
92% of the cases and 86% of the controls. Due to missing records, 15
incomplete matched sets (in which there was no case or no control) had
to be excluded. Thus, 174 cases and 462 individually matched controls
were eventually included in the study.
From the orthopedic records, data were collected on the index operation
and on all other hip replacement procedures carried out during the
follow-up period. Information about maximum and cumulative antibiotic
doses for prophylactic purposes were abstracted and defined as follows:
(a) maximum dose was the highest daily dose of prophylactic
antibiotics received at any recorded surgical procedure; and
(b) cumulative dose was calculated by summing the
prophylactic antibiotic doses for all surgeries. To account for
antibiotic concentration, we also divided maximum and cumulative doses
by body weight for all individuals for whom we had body weight data.
History of long-term antibiotic treatment was defined as treatments
that were received prior to surgery and documented in the orthopedic
records. Data regarding history of gastric resection and regular intake
of aspirin before surgery were also recorded.
The anti-infectious prophylaxis used was determined by standardized
local protocols. The treatments included several types of antibiotics
(amoxicillin, ampicillin, benzyl penicillin, phenoxymethyl penicillin,
tetracycline, cephalosporine, cloxacillin, meropenem, gentamicin,
and clindamycin), among which cloxacillin was the most frequently used
(83% of treatment courses; 65% of all cohort members). Most
treatments consisted of single drugs, and some treatments consisted of
combinations. A number of patients (21%) received no antibiotics;
during certain periods, many clinics had not yet introduced
prophylactic antibiotic treatment or had replaced it by use of a
sterile operation box. We tested in vitro the susceptibility
of two strains of H. pylori to the 10 antimicrobial agents
used among our study persons (E-test; Biodisk AB, Solna, Sweden). The
strains were sensitive to all of the tested agents, with minimal
inhibitory concentration values between <0.016 and 0.5 µg/ml (cancer
strain) and <0.0161.5 µg/ml (strain NCTC11637). The similar
efficacy observed for all of the agents precluded any efficient ranking
scheme. To facilitate comparisons of different antibiotics and to allow
summation of more than one drug, we constructed new dose variables by
dividing the recorded doses by drug-specific
DDDs3
(11)
. The DDD for a drug is established on the basis of
the assumed average dose per day for the drug used for its main
indication in adults. When a combination of drugs was used, maximum and
cumulative DDDs were added for the component drugs.
Anti-H. Pylori IgG Seroreversion (Cohorts II and
III).
Analyses of anti-H. pylori IgG in serum samples collected
before and after hip replacement surgery were done using a separate
cohort (cohort II) of patients undergoing hip replacement surgery
between 1986 and 1995 at the Department of Orthopedics
(Sahlgrenska-Östra University Hospital, Gothenburg,
Sweden). At surgery, all patients had been given a standard
prophylactic antibiotic treatment of i.v. cloxacillin (4 grams) on day
1 and oral dicloxacillin (3 grams) on days 2 and 3. We obtained a total
of 121 matching pairs of sera from patients who were H.
pylori positive before surgery (56 men and 65 women). The samples
were assayed for anti-H. pylori IgG by an ELISA technique
(HM-CAP; Enteric Products, Inc., Westbury, NY) with a
sensitivity and specificity of 9498% (12)
and 9297%
(13)
, respectively. The criteria for H. pylori
positivity and negativity were determined according to the
manufacturers instructions. To study atrophic gastritis as a possible
determinant for seroreversion, we analyzed pepsinogen A (PGI
Gastroset; Orion) as an indicator for presence of this condition
(14, 15, 16)
. Pepsinogen A concentrations below 25 µg/liter
were regarded as significant chronic atrophic gastritis
(17)
.
Finally, to study the rate of spontaneous seroreversion in the
background population, we analyzed sera from a cohort (cohort III) of
455 men, all born in 1913, living in the city of Gothenburg
(18)
. They were tested in 1980 and 1988, using the same
assay used for the hip replacement cohort (cohort II). Local ethical
committees in Gothenburg and Uppsala have approved the studies.
Statistical Analyses.
For the analyses of the nested case-control study (cohort I), maximum
dose and cumulative dose were categorized as below or above the median,
based on the distribution among both cases and controls
(19)
. Aspirin use was dichotomized (regular
versus not regular). Histories of long-term antibiotic use
and of gastric resection were also treated as dichotomous variables
(yes/no). Data were modeled with conditional logistic regression. For
the analyses of the second cohort (cohort II), data were modeled with
unconditional logistic regression. Maximum likelihood estimates of the
OR were determined in both univariate and multivariate models, with the
95% CIs presented as indicators of statistical precision. We tested
for linear trend by constructing ordinal variables through assigning
consecutive integers to consecutive levels of the categorized variables
(Walds test). All Ps are two-tailed.
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RESULTS
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Table 1
shows the distribution of cases of gastric cancer and individually
matched controls (cohort I) according to age, gender, indication for
index surgery, number of recorded orthopedic surgeries during follow-up
(including the index surgery), and history of gastric resection, as
well as the mean follow-up time for cases and controls. The majority of
cases were male (57%), whereas the majority of controls were female
(62%). Otherwise, there were no striking differences between cases and
controls with respect to any of the other variables.
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Table 1 Characteristics of 174 case patients with gastric cancer and 462
individually matched control subjects without gastric cancer in the
Swedish cohort of 39,154 patients undergoing hip replacement surgery
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Table 2
presents the distribution of cases and matched controls according to
the studied variables, as well as ORs with 95% CIs for the association
between these variables and gastric cancer. Controlling for gender,
age, gastric resection, and regular use of aspirin rendered results
similar to the crude model. A history of long-term antibiotic treatment
before the index surgery was associated with a significant 70%
decrease in gastric cancer risk. Having received any prophylactic
antibiotic treatment conferred a 30% reduction in risk, but the CIs
included unity. Both maximum and cumulative antibiotic doses per
kilogram of body weight were inversely associated with risk, but the
tests for linear trend were nonsignificant. We analyzed different types
of antibiotics separately (data not shown), and, although hampered by
small numbers, we found similar results for all subgroups. A
nonsignificant inverse association was also observed for regular use of
aspirin before surgery. Male sex (OR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.53.3) and
history of gastric resection (OR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.05.0) were
statistically significant risk factors for gastric cancer.
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Table 2 Conditional logistic regression-derived crude and adjusted ORs and 95%
CIs for the association between the studied variables and gastric
cancer
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We further assessed the effect of exposure to prophylactic antibiotics,
stratified by length of follow-up time (Table 3)
. The protective effect of prophylactic antibiotic use tended to be
stronger among patients followed for a longer period of time: the OR
was 0.6 for those followed for
5 years, compared with an OR of 0.8
for those followed for <5 years. Among 9 cases and 17 controls
followed for more than 12 years, the OR was 0.4 (95% CI, 0.02.8). In
contrast, the protective effect of regular aspirin use seemed limited
to those followed for <5 years.
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Table 3 Conditional logistic regression-derived
ORsa and 95% CIs for the association
of prophylactic antibiotic treatment, regular use of aspirin and
gastric cancer, stratified by follow-up time
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We explored the joint effect of antibiotics and aspirin (Table 4
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Table 4 Evaluation of the joint impact of use of aspirin and prophylactic
antibiotics on gastric cancer risk:
adjusteda conditional logistic
regression-derived ORs and 95% CIs
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The cohort from which we had obtained serum samples (cohort II) was
followed for a mean time of 3.9 years (range, 1.19.9 years; mean time
of 3.5 years among those who seroreverted and 4.1 years among those who
remained seropositive). In both groups, the mean age was 70
years (range, 4487 years). During the study follow-up period, the
cumulative incidence of seroreversion was 14% (17 of 121
subjects). Within this cohort (cohort II), atrophic gastritis
was associated with increased odds of seroreversion (OR, 3.5; 95% CI,
1.0513.4). In our control population (cohort III), the 8-year
cumulative incidence of spontaneous seroreversion was 11% (42 of 366
subjects). Calculation of annual seroreversion rates showed a
reversion rate of 3.6% per year among those treated with prophylactic
antibiotics (cohort II), compared with a corresponding rate of 1.4%
per year among those in the reference group (cohort III).
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DISCUSSION
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Our data lend indirect support to the hypothesis that treatment
with antibiotics at a fairly advanced age is associated with a reduced
gastric cancer risk. Gastric cancer risk appeared to decrease with
increasing follow-up time, which is biologically plausible. Because
H. pylori is thought to be an early-stage carcinogen, the
latency between its critical action and cancer diagnosis is likely to
be long, and any effect of eradication on cancer occurrence would be
expected to increase with time. The rate of H. pylori
antibody disappearance observed in a cohort of patients undergoing hip
replacement surgery (cohort II) was slightly but not substantially
higher than that in the background population (cohort III). However,
the use of prophylactic antibiotic treatment has varied over time; high
doses used in earlier years (up to 12 grams/day) have subsequently been
modified to lower doses (24 grams/day). Hence, the cohort from which
we obtained serum samples (cohort II) was most likely exposed to lower
doses of prophylactic antibiotics than the original cohort (cohort I)
because patients in the original cohort underwent surgery up to 30
years before patients in the second cohort. The reduction in
prophylactic treatment over time could thus explain the absence of a
marked effect on H. pylori antibody disappearance. Our
comparison group (cohort III) was similar to the H.
pylori-tested cohort (cohort II) with regard to age and study area
but differed with regard to gender composition (men only) and length of
follow-up time (8 years versus a mean of 3.9 years).
Comparing the cumulative seroreversion rates, it is noteworthy that the
reversion rate among those treated with prophylactic antibiotics
(cohort II) presumably peaked in connection with the surgery at entry,
whereas the spontaneous reversion rate in the comparison cohort (cohort
III) was most likely constant over time. A Danish population-based
study has reported an 11-year cumulative seroreversion rate of 7.7%
(20)
. Comparable data regarding spontaneous disappearance
of H. pylori infection are otherwise limited. Two smaller
longitudinal studies have presented annual seroreversion rates of 1.6%
(21)
and 0.6% (22)
.
However, a fairly small increase in seroreversion may be sufficient to
produce the observed risk reduction if loss of H. pylori
infection preferentially occurs in high-risk individuals. The
treatments most commonly used for prophylactic purposes in hip
replacement surgery are not normally those prescribed against H.
pylori. Because H. pylori is sensitive to almost all
types of antimicrobial agents in vitro (23
, 24)
, the frequent treatment failures with simple antibiotic
regimens in vivo are probably due to local factors in the
stomach rather than bacterial resistance. Atrophic gastritis is
associated with an elevated gastric pH, which may amplify the effect of
a normally less potent antibiotic (25, 26, 27)
. Atrophic
gastritis, which is itself a likely key step in gastric carcinogenesis
associated with a marked increase in the risk of gastric cancer
(28, 29, 30)
, may paradoxically generate the possibility of
eradication from normally ineffectual antibiotics. Although loss
of the infection in advanced atrophic gastritis is generally perceived
as a marker of imminent cancer development, we speculate that there is
a window of time between the establishment of atrophy and the point of
no return in the carcinogenic pathway during which eradication is both
facilitated and efficient in halting the carcinogenic process.
Our finding of a negative association between gastric cancer and
regular use of aspirin is consistent with earlier studies
(31, 32, 33)
. Although based on small numbers, our study
suggested that regular aspirin use modified the effect of antibiotics;
that is, among users of aspirin, no additional protection was afforded
by antimicrobial therapy. Hypothetically, these treatments might work
through the same biological mechanism, by disrupting, perhaps at
different levels, the H. pylori-gastric cancer pathway.
Although more than 300,000 person-years at risk were surveyed in the
cohort (cohort I), the number of observed cancer cases and hence
the statistical precision in the nested case-control study were
insufficient to rule out chance as an explanation for our findings with
reasonable confidence. Indeed, our findings are a reminder of the
immense sample size and long follow-up required to demonstrate a
statistically significant risk reduction in a prevention trial. A
strong a priori hypothesis and the biological plausibility
of our findings may, to some extent, outweigh precision weaknesses.
Because our case-control study was nested in a well-defined cohort, the
validity of the underlying cohort study is preserved. Hence selection
bias is minimized, and differential misclassification is precluded by
the prospective nature of the data collection. Furthermore, information
bias was controlled by blinding of data abstractors. Allocation to
antibiotic treatment regimens was not individualized but followed
standardized local protocols. Therefore, confounding by indication or
by other factors linked to the individual is unlikely. The cases and
controls may have been prescribed antibiotics at medical departments
other than those under surveillance. We were unable to capture such
treatment episodes. The resulting misclassification of exposure should
be nondifferential and thus lead to underestimation of the true effect
(34)
.
Besides reports of regression of low-grade MALT lymphoma after
H. pylori eradication (35)
, there have been a
few clinical studies that indirectly indicated that H.
pylori eradication might prevent gastric cancer (36
, 37)
. Randomized chemoprevention trials are ongoing but have
experienced difficulties in attaining high rates of permanent H.
pylori eradication (38
, 39)
. Therefore, conclusive
evidence of a cancer-protective effect of H. pylori
eradication may not become available in the near future. In the
absence of studies capable of directly examining whether
H. pylori eradication decreases the risk of gastric cancer,
our study provides some supplementary suggestive evidence.
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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
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We thank Olof Larsson for help with data collection and Kristina
Hulten, Helena Enroth, and Maria Held for laboratory assistance.
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FOOTNOTES
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The costs of publication of this article were defrayed in part by the payment of page charges. This article must therefore be hereby marked advertisement in accordance with 18 U.S.C. Section 1734 solely to indicate this fact.
1 Supported by National Cancer Institute Contract
NO1-CP-60538 and Grants 3797-B9601XAA and 3434-B9906BB from the
Swedish Cancer Society. O. N. was the principal investigator. 
2 To whom requests for reprints should be
addressed, at Department of Medical Epidemiology, Karolinska
Institute, Box 281, S-171 77 Stockholm, Sweden. Phone:
46-8-728-61-91; Fax: 46-8-314975; E-mail: Katja.Akre{at}mep.ki.se 
3 The abbreviations used are: DDD, defined daily
dose; OR, odds ratio; CI, confidence interval; ELISA, enzyme-linked
immunosorbent assay. 
Received 1/31/00.
Accepted 9/12/00.
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