The Absolute Risk of Cervical Abnormalities in High-risk Human Papillomavirus-Positive, Cytologically Normal Women Over a 10-Year Period

^{1 1}Institute of Cancer Epidemiology, Danish Cancer Society; ²The Juliane Marie Center, Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen University Hospital, Copenhagen, Denmark; ³Laboratory for Pathology and Medical Microbiology, PAMM Laboratories, Eindhoven, the Netherlands; ⁴Department of Pathology, Vrije Universiteit Medical Center, Amsterdam, the Netherlands; ⁵Digene Corp., Gaithersburg, Maryland; and ⁶Sektion Experimentelle Virologie, Universitaetsklinikum Tuebingen, Tuebingen, Germany

^* To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: susanne{at}cancer.dk.

	Abstract

In spite of the success of cervical cytology as a cancer-screening tool, it has important limitations, and human papillomavirus (HPV) testing may be valuable in future screening. The majority of women in screened populations, who test HPV positive, will have a concurrent normal smear, and we need more information about the risk for subsequent high-grade cervical lesions in these women. We examined 8,656 younger women (22-32 years old) and 1,578 older women (40-50 years old) who were followed for development of cervical neoplasia (cytology and/or histology) through the Danish Pathology Data Bank. We estimated the proportion of women developing cervical lesions of different types before a given time point as a function of time. Among women with normal cytology and positive high-risk Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2) test, 17.7% and 24.5% of younger and older women, respectively, had a subsequent abnormal Pap smear within 5 years. The risk of CIN3 or cancer within 10 years among younger women with positive HC2 test was 13.6% (10.9-16.2) and 21.2% (2.7-36.1) among older women. An analysis among younger women also being HC2-positive 2 years before baseline showed a subsequent 10-year risk of CIN3 of 18% (14.6-21.5). Among older women where HPV may be added to general screening, the estimated absolute risk of CIN3 in HC2-positive women was more than 20% within 10 years. These results indicate that even a single positive HPV test in cytologically negative women is substantially predictive of high-grade CIN and suggest that HC2 testing can help stratify women into different risk categories. (Cancer Res 2006; 66(21): 10630-6)

Key Words: HPV, HC2, cervical neoplasia, follow-up study, absolute risk

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