Abstract 5494: The development and validation of risk predictive models for cervical low-grade and high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions

Abstract

Aim To develop and validate a risk predictive model for cervical high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HGSIL; CIN2/CIN3). Materials and Methods Study women were from a community survey network for cervical cytological screening to evaluate and develop a simplified risk-score system (Jan., 2003-Feb., 2009, Kaohsiung county). Two other series of study participants obtained, respectively, from a follow-up of disease-free women in the community (followed from Apr., 2004-Feb., 2010) and from a hospital screening (Nov., 2008-Aug. 2011, KMUH) for cervical lesions were used to validate the risk-score system. Kaplan-Meier failure functions and the Cox proportional hazards model were used to evaluate the cervical precancerous risk for women with high-risk scores. Results Women who have a risk score of ≥5 obtained from the HGSIL model were defined as high risk subjects for the cervical lesion. The sensitivity and specificity of the risk-score system were 76.3% and 88.1%. The results of validation showed that the HGSIL model had high sensitivity and specificity (100% and 89.6%) for the community follow-up samples. We also evaluated the incidences of HGSIL among women with a high risk-score using the community follow-up cohort. The first and second-year cumulative incidences of HGSIL among women with the score of ≥5 were 1.05% and 3.63%, respectively. Conclusion With an acceptable accuracy, our data suggest that the HGSIL risk predictive model can be used to assist the screening of HGSIL.

Citation Format: {Authors}. {Abstract title} [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 103rd Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2012 Mar 31-Apr 4; Chicago, IL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2012;72(8 Suppl):Abstract nr 5494. doi:1538-7445.AM2012-5494