Table 2

Clone size and the risk for progression to esophageal adenocarcinoma

Clone with predictornFollow-up in person-yearsNumber with cancerRR for an x cm clone (95% CI)RR for 5 cm of a clone (95% CI)
p53 LOH53167261.27 (1.07–1.50)** 3.30 (1.40–7.59)**
p53 mutation39138161.13x (0.89–1.43)1.84 (0.56–5.98)
Either p53 lesion63213271.26 (1.08–1.47)** 3.18 (1.47–6.86)**
Both p53 mutation and LOH31104141.25x (0.85–1.84)3.05 (0.44–21.09)
p16 LOH157685311.09x (0.99–1.20)1.54 (0.95–2.49)
p16 mutation3414650.82x (0.50–1.37)0.37 (0.03–4.83)
p16 methylation74313161.13x (0.99–1.29)1.84 (0.95–3.57)
p16 null58237150.89x (0.62–1.26)0.56 (0.09–3.18)
Any p16 lesion194869311.13 (1.03–1.23)** 1.84 (1.16–2.82)**
p16 lesion without p53 LOH14672281.05x (0.85–1.31)1.28 (0.44–3.86)
p16 lesion with p53 LOH45134231.07x (0.93–1.21)1.40 (0.70–2.59)
Aneuploid3280171.28x (0.97–1.69)3.44 (0.86–13.79)
Tetraploid2673141.56x (0.62-3.94)9.24 (0.09–949.47)
Aneuploid/tetraploid47134241.31 (1.07–1.60)** 3.86 (1.40–10.49)**
p53 LOH or aneuploid/tetraploid65222301.33x (1.15–10.55)*** 4.16 (2.01–8.95)***
  • NOTE. Relative risks are an exponential in the size of the clone; therefore, we have calculated the relative risk (RR) of a clone making up 5 cm worth of the Barrett’s segment. The RR for 5 cm of a clone is included as an example to facilitate intuition for the exponential risk functions of Cox regressions (e.g., 5 cm of a p53 LOH clone RR = 1.275 = 3.30). Bold values are statistically significant.

  • ** A significant result at P< 0.01.

  • *** A significant result at P< 0.001.