Table 3.

Summary of validation results

Concordance index C*Observed/expected ratioMean squared error
MelaPRO-HBI0.86 (0.75–0.97)0.85 (0.62–1.08)0.06 (0.03–0.08)
MelaPRO-LBI0.86 (0.74–0.97)0.31 (0.20–0.42)0.19 (0.15–0.22)
MelaPRO-GEM0.83 (0.67–0.98)0.54 (0.38–0.72)0.08 (0.06–0.11)
MELPREDICT0.82 (0.61–0.93)1.10 (0.92–1.17)0.09 (0.04–0.12)
Difference between MelaPRO-HBI and MelaPRO-LBI0.007 (−0.01 to 0.02)Not applicable§−0.13 (−0.16 to −0.10)
Difference between MelaPRO-HBI and MelaPRO-GEM0.04 (−0.008 to 0.09)Not applicable−0.03 (−0.04 to −0.02)
Difference between MelaPRO-HBI and MELPREDICT0.05 (0.007 to 0.17)Not applicable−0.03 (−0.06 to 0.002)
SensitivitySpecificity
FH: ≥2 affected relatives0.810.58
  • *The concordance index C is equal to the area under the ROC curve.

  • The ratio between the observed number of carriers and the total number of predicted carriers.

  • Leave-one-out cross-validation on Boston data using fixed covariates for MELPREDICT.

  • §Computing the difference in this case is not appropriate, as each ratio should be compared with the reference value of one.