Prospective Risk of Pancreatic Cancer in Familial Pancreatic Cancer Kindreds

Alison P. Klein; Kieran A. Brune; Gloria M. Petersen; Michael Goggins; Anne C. Tersmette; G. Johan A. Offerhaus; Constance Griffin; John L. Cameron; Charles J. Yeo; Scott Kern; Ralph H. Hruban

doi:10.1158/0008-5472.CAN-03-3823

DOI: 10.1158/0008-5472.CAN-03-3823 Published April 2004

Article Figures & Data

Tables

Table 1

Mean age at baseline of at-risk family members and age at diagnosis of pancreatic cancer among incident cases in families

	At-risk family members		Prospective cases
	No. of individuals^a	Age at baseline (±SD)	No. of individuals	Age at diagnosis of pancreatic cancer (±SD)^b
FPC^c
Male	1141	52.5 (± 18.2)	7	69.5 (± 8.5)
Female	1330	54.3 (± 18.7)	8	68.4 (± 14.3)
SPC
Male	1072	52.5 (± 18.7)	3	59.4 (± 9.7)
Female	1293	55.7 (± 19.2)	0	na^c
Unrelated
Male	135	66.8 (± 10.7)	1	>65
Female	234	63.0 (± 11.9)	0	na
Total^a	5179	54.6 (± 18.6)	19

a Because of changes in family cancer status over time, the sum of the number of individuals in each stratum is not equal to the total number of individuals in the study.
b To protect the confidentiality of the participants only mean ages (when >2 cases) or age group data (≤2 cases) are shown and the mean (SD) of all cases is not presented.
c FPC, familial pancreatic cancer; SPC, sporadic pancreatic cancer; na, not applicable.

Table 2

Risk of pancreatic cancer among unrelated family members and among individuals with a first-degree relative with pancreatic cancer in the familial (FPC) kindreds and sporadic (SPC) kindreds

Family status^a	No. of individuals	Person-years of follow-up	Observed cases	Expected cases^b	SIR^c (95% CI)
FPC Kindreds	1993	5273	11	1.22	9.0 (4.5–16.1)
SPC Kindreds	1964	5265	2	1.12	1.8 (0.22–6.42)
Unrelated	369	1073	1	0.41	2.4 (0.06–13.5)

a FPC kindreds were defined as kindreds having at least one pair of first-degree relatives with pancreatic cancer, and SPC kindreds as families without such an affected pair.
b Adjusted for age, sex, and race.
c SIR, standardized incidence ratio; CI, confidence interval.

Table 3

Risk of pancreatic cancer (PC) among members of familial pancreatic cancer (FPC) kindreds stratified by their number of first-degree relatives (FDRs) with pancreatic cancer

No. of FDRs with PC^a	No. of individuals	Person-years of follow-up	Observed cases	Expected cases^b	SIR^c (95% CI)
3 or more	106	287.2	5	0.156	32.0 (10.4–74.7)
2	634	1597.9	4	0.623	6.4 (1.8–16.4)
1	1253	3388.0	2	0.442	4.5 (0.54–16.3)

a Denotes each individual’s number of FDRs with pancreatic cancer (i.e., the number of their parents, siblings, and children with pancreatic cancer).
b Adjusted for age, sex, and race.
c SIR, standardized incidence ratio; CI, confidence interval.

Table 4

Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for pancreatic cancer in members of kindreds with at least one first-degree relative with pancreatic cancer by smoking status and age

	No. of individuals^a	Person-years of follow-up	Observed cases	Expected cases	SIR (95% CI)^b
Smoking status
Ever smoker	546	1761	7	0.365	19.2 (7.7–39.5)
Never smoker	1214	2941	4	0.640	6.25 (1.70–16.0)
Unknown	233	572	0	0.214	0 (0–17.3)
Age
<45	738	1739	0	0.020	0 (0–615)
45–64.9	833	2033	4	0.253	15.8 (4.31–40.4)
≥65	620	1502	7	0.947	7.4 (2.97–15.2)

a Because of changes in age strata during follow-up, numbers do not equal total number of individuals in study.
b CI, confidence interval.

Table 5
Estimated incidence of pancreatic cancer in the general United States (U.S.) population among familial pancreatic cancer kindred members with at least one first-degree relative (FDR) with pancreatic cancer
No. of FDRs with pancreatic cancer Incidence (per 100,000) in the general U.S. population^a
3 or more 288
2 58
1 41
1 or more 81
General U.S. (reference) 9
a SIR × incidence of pancreatic cancer in the general U.S. population.