Table 1.

Projected incidences based on changing demographics and average annual percentage change in incidence rates

MenWomenAll
Cancer sitesAAPCa# of CasesbAAPCa# of Casesb# of Casesb
All
 2010−0.6808,000NS761,0001,569,000
 2020961,000900,0001,861,000
 20301,086,0001,049,0002,135,000
Bladder
 2010NS57,000−0.419,00076,000
 202072,00021,00093,000
 203089,00024,000113,000
Breast
 2010NS226,000226,000
 2020262,000262,000
 2030294,000294,000
Colon and rectum
 2010−3.372,000−3.068,000139,000
 202065,00061,000127,000
 203058,00056,000114,000
Kidney and renal pelvis
 2010NS30,000NS18,00048,000
 202037,00022,00059,000
 203044,00025,00069,000
Leukemia
 20100.427,0000.620,00046,000
 202033,00024,00057,000
 203042,00030,00073,000
Liver and intrahepatic bile
 20103.719,0002.97,00026,000
 202034,00013,00047,000
 203062,00021,00083,000
Lung and bronchus
 2010−1.9107,000−1.295,000202,000
 2020115,000104,000219,000
 2030116,000109,000225,000
Melanoma
 20102.447,0001.732,00079,000
 202070,00041,000111,000
 203098,00053,000151,000
Non-Hodgkin lymphoma
 20100.738,000NS31,00069,000
 202049,00037,00086,000
 203064,00044,000108,000
Oral cavity and pharynx
 2010NS25,000−0.910,00035,000
 202030,00011,00041,000
 203034,00012,00046,000
Pancreas
 20101.322,0001.422,00043,000
 202031,00031,00062,000
 203043,00044,00088,000
Prostate
 2010−2.0218,000218,000
 2020235,000235,000
 2030228,000228,000
Thyroid
 20105.411,0006.534,00045,000
 202021,00071,00092,000
 203039,000144,000183,000
Uterine corpus
 20102.952,00052,000
 202082,00082,000
 2030122,000122,000

Abbreviation: NS, nonsignificant.

  • aEdwards et al., (ref. 5, Table 1).

  • bAll projections for 2010 were calculated using rounded incidences from Smith et al. (3), and projections for 2020 and 2030 were calculated using the previous unrounded incidence projections, then rounded to the nearest 1,000.